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Posted: Sun Nov 19, 2006 8:27 pm
by the_new_guy
Hey ThunderTT, you said you had some best buy stocks and that they were doing very well....exactly how well? what are you getting off of them per month/year? whats the deal with investing in iraq, is it because it costs next to nothing to buy stocks right now? and your waiting for the economy to get back on it's feet?

i was thinking of getting into the stock market about a year and a half ago but i didn't. i think it was because i didn't know enough about it and what to go into...any tips on what to look into?

General Motors stock is on the rebound..

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 1:45 pm
by Pecos
General Motors

..and it had a correction this week to $31 that presents a buying opportunity.

A sharp drop like this is usually caused by people setting stop loss points to sell their positions if the stock price drops to a certain point, and as the stock drops for another reason, the price drop is accelerated through more and more of these stop loss points until they are cleared out. This means the stock will likely recover quickly from this artificial price drop. This time of year, the usual reason for the stock decline is larger funds selling to settle out tax needs and rebalance for year end reporting, As the new year approaches, the funds need to reinvest, and the stock they just sold has a lower asking price than what they sold for, so they reinvest right back into the same stock. Money will likely flow back into GM stock next week, and the stock price should rebound back quickly to the previous high of $36, and keep going towards $50 early next year as the hype for the new Camaro increases.

Be careful not to hold beyond the euphoria of the Camaro hype. Reality rarely measures up to all the promises...

$31 to $50 is a 60% increase in a 2 to 4 months, and GM is not in bankruptcy like Delta and Northwest.

BTW, I bought NWACQ at 70 cents in September. I was stopped out at $2.25 last Monday. The stock closed today at nearly $4.00, and is showing no signs of slowing down. I wish I still had my position.

I will likely be a GM stock holder next week.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 2:26 pm
by Pro
What about RADS? I think its about time to load up on it again.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 5:06 pm
by Speeder
Two important things about stock -

1st: Decide on your high and low sell points, and when the stock hits, sell. Period. Say you buy 1000 shares at 1.00 a share. Set your sell points at whatever you are comfortable with, say 80 cents and 1.50. If the stock drops to 80 cents, sell. You lost 20 cents a share, but still have 80 cents a share. If it hits 1.50 a share, sell. You made 50 cents a share, so you showed a profit. The reason for this is, nobody wants to sell at a loss, and nobody wants to sell a winner. You can run a loser into the ground, and can perceive a winner as a loser by considering anything below the highest price under your ownership to be a loss. Folks that don't approach stock trading with a clear set of goals usually take a bath.

2nd: Don't regret selling a stock that went higher than your sell point. Yes, you could have made more money, but be happy that you made some money. The whole point behind stock trading is to make money, and it's rare that you'll get a skyrocket. I traded for a year, only had one, and my dumb ass got caught up in the euphoria and lost half the gains before I got smart and sold. The one in question was a biotech that I bought in at 30 cents a share, and watched hit 17 bucks a share, then sold at 11 bucks a share. A week after I sold, it was back to 70 cents a share. Get greedy, lose it all.

This is a rational method for stock trading, that usually results in making money. Using this, I was able to make enough on the stock market to fund quite a bit of the 99 Silverado I bought. Unfortunately, I didn't apply this strategy to my 401(k) plan and took a bath. Once you get experience at it, you can adjust those price levels as you go, if it looks like you have a runner extend both the high and low sell prices upward. Never, ever hold a stock past the low sell price, because only 1 in a thousand will recover the gains it it decides to go south. If you like the stock, after the low sell you can always watch it and get back in when you think it's hit bottom.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 5:25 pm
by Pro
yea theres no way im doing day trading with my retirement

Day trading is not for me either...

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:16 pm
by Pecos
but buy and hold forever is just as crazy. Speeder is right. One has to have the plan for getting out before you ever get in.

IT'S AMAZING how easily we forget the old 'Buy Low - Sell High' theory of making money. But in order to do it, first you have to Buy Low. The Truth is the 'Average Investor' usually buys high, then when it drops they panic, bail out and sell low.

The trick I have learned to use is to identify undervalued stocks in areas I am familiar with, or interested in, and will watch, or as a normal course of my day, I will see announcements or activity. Buy the stock when they have reached a low in a declining trend and have begun a turn around (like Northwest and Delta), or are clearly on a rise and have a dip (like GM), and at a point where you have some certainty of a move up in 60 - 90 days. As the stock runs, I move my loss/sell stops up underneath it where I will clear a profit. I never set top sell points, I just let it run up, and move in closer underneath with my loss stops. That is what I did with Northwest Airlines. I am happy with a 30 to 50% gain in a few months, two or three times a year. If you can get a 30% gain, just two times a year, $1,000 will grow to $1,690 the first year, $2,800 the second, $4,800 the third, $8,150 the forth, and $13,780 the fifth. If you can do this 3 times a year, or are able to get a few at a 50% gain or higher, you can turn $1,000 into over $50,000 in five years. Do the math. Year 4 and 5 are tremendous.

If you get upside down on a stock, meaning it dropped before it goes up, you may have to sit on it for a longer period. Remember, you only loose money when you sell. I generally do not set sell stops until the stock rises above what I paid for it. Learn from your mistakes, and you will learn to pick more winners than losers.

The hard part is scratching together the minimum dollar amount needed to open a trading account with someone like Scott Trades or Schwab, and actually starting.

The second hardest is to keep your hands off of your earnings and keep reinvesting them.

Northwest was a 350% gain for me. I am very happy with this. If another buying opportunity presents itself, I can always get back in.

I know nothing about Radiant Systems (RADS). However, the stock chart indicates the stock price is following a cyclical pattern, and that at the current $10 price, the stock is at a low point and has the potential to grow to $13 to $15 range in the next few months as the previous highs on the chart would indicate. It could very well be a good buy, but one would have to know the business Radiant Systems is in, and be convinced the historical pattern will repeat itself in the next 3 to 5 months. Could be exactly the type of 30% to 50% gain I am talking about.

Radiant Systems

Heres a Christmas present from me to you. United Parcel Service (UPS) has been in a pattern for several years now. The stock price hits a low in August or September, and hits a high in December. 30 to 50% rise in each of the last 5 years. The rise in on-line Christmas shopping is fueling this, and this trend will only continue in the coming years. It is too late to profit from it this year, but keep this in mind for next year. It is as close to a sure thing as it gets.


Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 6:32 pm
by Pro
I can tell you everything you need to know about RADS (since I work for them), legally.
Holy crap we have sooo many customers lined up its unbelieveable. Im in the hospitality division, and we are skyrocketing with sales. Our entertainment division is picking up (used to be losing money), as is the petrolium division. But our hospitality carries us.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 7:24 pm
by Pecos ... highlight=

I read the third quarter statement and it is pretty sparse. I could see nothing to indicate why the 20% increase in stock price in August, and the 30% drop in October. If you have some insight, and confidence of short-term repeatability, then you are in a good position to make a sound decision. ... 005_AR.pdf

Paragraph #4 on Page #14 of your 2005 company annual report says 25% of your company’s revenues are derived from just 5 clients. Who are they? You probably see the names everyday at work. Are these companies themselves in a growth pattern, stabilization, or retraction? Do these five historically benefit from the Santa Clause rally that will benefit many stocks beginning in December? Are these five in industries or market segments that traditionally increase at or after the first of any given calendar year?

I see "Hospitality", "Petroleum and Convenience Retail", and "Entertainment" being mentioned repeatedly as the three areas your company services, but I did not see a definition of these provided. Do you know how your company defines these three market segments? Do you know what percentage of the market place in each of these segments your company has? Do you know who the competition in each segment is and if they are growing, stabilized, or retracting?

The balance sheet on page #45 of the same annual report looks strong and shows nice, consistant growth. Answers to the above questions should give you insight as to what the stock will be doing in the next 60 to 90 days, and what, if any, pattern you can anticipate going forward. I have put this stock on my radar screen to watch too. If the GM opportunity runs away from me next week before I can get in, I may have to look at this more closely.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 8:09 pm
by Pro
I cant answer all your questions. I test the software that we deploy (radiant makes the hardware - touch screen terminals). I am with Aloha (dallas), but Radiant bought us out at the beginning of 2004.
Our software is getting sooo much more reliable. Expanding overseas also. Aloha enterprise is getting soo much bigger each quarter. That, plus we are release 2 new products here in a couple more months.
I think Radiant (based in atlanta) is working on (or already deployed) a couple of portable credit card scanners to some of our resellers? The wireless back office setups are becoming more popular also. I dont know exactly how much we are growing in terms of hardware sales. But our software seems to be through the roof (IE our software can run on other hardware - micros, ibm, etc). Just like how you can have windows on either a dell or a HP.
I dont know who our biggest customers are, but being in support for a while a couple of years ago I can say PF Changs is a huge one. Another would be Jamba Juice. Throw in Pride (burger king). A little chipotle also (arnt they mcdonalds?). TA (Travel Centers of America). Abuelos just signed a big contract. We even service the Air Force. Those are just a few, but we are slowing getting more and more of the franchises.
I feel like a salesman sometimes when I find out old friends opened up choke n pukes and get to show them some of the technology.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 8:27 pm
by Speeder
Oh, sorry... yes, that was daytrading I was describing, and it's definitely NOT something you want to have to NEED. The money I was using for that was play money, I wrote it off the moment I opened the trading account. I had also spent a year or two doing research so I'd have an idea of what to look for, and did paper trading for about 6 months. When the paper trading started showing a consistent average gain, I started playing day trader. I can only wish I'd been as diligent with the retirement account, I'd have well over 100 grand by now instead of the paltry 30 grand that is in there now. Still, it isn't too bad considering that 5 years ago it had dipped down to 200 bucks, thanks to Bernie's lies and my dumb ass for listening to them.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 8:31 pm
by Pro
Day trading = fun though.
Suck when you have a mortage though. But if I can get a better return than what I am losing towards the mortage, then yay.
I have my roth. money market, and an REIT with Vanguard. 401K spread out all over other mutual funds.
I was doing stock trades with vanguard, but damn they charge 25 bucks per trade, plus commision. So I opened up with scottrade. 10 bucks a trade, something like that. I dont know if its best but damn its 2 times better.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 9:01 pm
by Pro
I was also looking at AMD, ford, sonic and time warner the last few days.

Posted: Fri Nov 24, 2006 10:32 pm
by endo

Posted: Sat Nov 25, 2006 5:35 am
by Speeder
Well, just remember on that mortgage the interest comes off on your income taxes, AND every payment brings the house closer to being your house, not somebody else's. Renting is a 100 percent loss of money.

Wish I could get back in on the daytrading because it is fun, but that's something else that'll have to wait till the kids move out. I'm not guaranteed 20-30 hours of OT per paycheck anymore like I used to be, and my mortgage and bills are twice what it was when I was getting all that OT. Thank God I no longer carry a revolving credit debt, have 2 cards that are mostly used only for gas and food, and are paid off in full every month.

GM stock not done declining yet.

Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:11 pm
by Pecos
GM, Ford, and Chrysler are all now declining. Something fundimental happening. Need to stand on the sidelines for a while and watch.

Pro, do you have anything to do with the P1520 product? The product announcement appears to coinside with the ~30% stock price decline at the end of October.

Posted: Mon Nov 27, 2006 1:09 pm
by Pro
no, i work with 1220s.
1520s are about to be released.
the stock went down because of expected Q3 earnings were lower than though (although huge growth overall).

Posted: Tue Nov 28, 2006 9:15 pm
by Pro
pecos - L3 communications
still losing money but getting worse at it
results for the quarter about to come out.

Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 7:11 am
by Speeder
May be time to start watching Ford, they have been able to cut manpower by more than they planned. One would have to investigate thoroughly, but dropping 46 percent of their unionized personnel means they've dropped costs quite a bit. This puts them in a far better position than GM, and they can always add people back if demand goes back up. If Ford is smart, they will take advantage of this to also unload their SUV lines and crank up full-size, fuel efficient cars. ... rd_buyouts

Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2006 11:17 am
by Pro
they are also going to stop with the dividends

Posted: Thu Nov 30, 2006 7:42 am
by Pecos
GM (Ford and Chrysler too) heading south more before moving north again. Housing market driving this more than anything else.

3L looks to be selling at a premium. I don't know its business at all, so can't tell if this has much room to go higher.

Today I placed two buy orders; one for ALDS @ 2.76 (Bio tech), and a second for RADS (Just plan tech) @ 9.51. Both look to have good 20 - 30% upside potential in next 2 to 4 months, with low risk of further down side movement.

Advanced Life Science ... 991110.htm ... .html#a561

Radiant Systems

If the RADS order fills, I will own a piece of PRO. Scary.